The Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck in the national polls as the campaign heats up and the rhetoric gets nastier ahead of voting next Monday. But no regional or riding polling has been released for Vancouver Island.
So Islanders have to guess who is winning the horse race in each riding.
If you’re going to guess, you have two go-to’s to try to guide your choice: trends and history.
In terms of trends, while it’s currently a toss-up between Liberals and Conservatives in national polls, most polls show the NDP leading here in BC with Conservatives right behind.
Historically, Vancouver Island has been an NDP stronghold. However, the North Island has swung from NDP to Conservative over the past 25 years. John Duncan was elected for North Island in 1993. He served until 2006, during which time the Progressive Conservatives and Reform Party/Alliance merged to form the Conservative Party of Canada. Duncan lost in that election to NDP’s Catherine Bell, but was reelected again in 2008. In the 2015 election, he lost to Gord Johns in the newly created Courtenay-Alberni riding.
The North Island has never been friendly to Liberals, and it remains a long shot for them.
To help you decide how to vote, we thought we’d take a closer look at the North Island-Powell River candidates from these two major parties and share a few things you should know about them.
The Conservative
Shelley Downey came close in the last federal election, edged out of a seat by Blaney by a mere 350 votes. Born in Forts St. John, Downey spent her childhood in northern BC but has lived in Port McNeill since 1991.
She has done accounting work in the fishing, tourism and helicopter sectors, but since 2008 has focused on the family drug store business. Downey is active in her local church community and previously volunteered as a volleyball coach.
She is also a veteran municipal politician and a former school board trustee serving her fourth term as a Port McNeill town councillor. Unfortunately, neither her website nor Twitter feed reveals much about her policy positions, beyond Retweets defending status-quo forestry and fish farming against so-called activist agendas.
In a recent Campbell River Mirror story, Downey said she wants to fight for the resource economy and jobs in the North Island region.
“Canada is a country that is very careful at operating at the highest standard of environmental considerations and practices,” she said.”We have an excellent human rights record, and yet we are taking a hit, and everything is being shut down. We need to do better.”
Downey also listed affordable housing as another top-shelf issue, accusing the governing Liberals of being long on words but short on action to address in a meaningful way.
The Liberal
Jennifer Grenz, the Liberal candidate for North Island-Powell River’s, parachuted late into the campaign. The thing is, she doesn’t currently live in the region she wants to represent in Ottawa. A newcomer to politics, Grenz belongs to the Lytton First Nation and grew up in Delta. She now lives on a small farm in Parksville with her husband and three children.
She has a Ph.D. in integrated land and food systems from UBC and also teaches in the department.
Her company Greener This Side specializes in invasive species management, ecological restoration, and food security planning for industry, government, First Nations and non-profits. Grenz says her hands-on work in ecological restoration and experience working with people of all political stripes and ethnicities is her biggest strength.
Wild salmon stewardship, climate change, community economic development and recovery from COVID-19 are priority issues for Grenz.
“There are examples in the riding where policy decisions have come from the government that have had a significant impact on people here,” Grenz said in a recent Campbell River Mirror story. “The region is about as far from Ottawa as we can get, so the things that are important for the people that live here are not going to be front-of-mind unless someone is able to effectively deliver those messages.”
Grenz says she decided to run because so many of the issues facing the riding, like climate, jobs, housing, and senior care, can’t afford to wait for solutions.
“Well-meaning voices aren’t necessarily getting those important issues to the table to create solutions. I want to be able to deliver for the people by being at that table,” she says.
